CME ScoreBoard Header

CME Scoreboard

CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2024-07-28T02:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-07-28T02:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/32269/-1
CME Note: Full halo CME visible in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and towards the east in STEREO A COR2. The source is likely the M9.9 flare peaking at 2024-07-28T01:57Z from AR 3766 and/or the M7.8 flare directly preceding it from the same region. Dimming and EUV wave visible in SDO AIA 193 and 335 and GOES SUVI 284, post-eruptive arcades visible in SDO AIA 131/171/193. The eruption is also visible in STEREO A EUV imagery. Arrival signature is characterized by an increase in magnetic field components from 9nT to approx. 16nT, preceded by a smaller increase from 6nT to 9nT starting at 2024-07-31T10:40Z and accompanied by a sharp increase in solar wind speed from approx. 400 km/s to over 470 km/s, as well as sharp increase in solar wind density to over 10p/cc. This is possibly a combined arrival of this CME and multiple other Earth-directed CMEs.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-07-31T13:46Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-07-30T12:00Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 60.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 7.0
Prediction Method: Cone + HAF (SEPC, NSSC, CAS)
Prediction Method Note: 
predicted CME shock arrival time: 2024-07-30T12:00Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 60%
Kp Range: 4-7
Lead Time: 36.33 hour(s)
Difference: 25.77 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Jingjing Wang (NSSC SEPC) on 2024-07-30T01:26Z
CME Scoreboard Footer

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Collection Consent Agreement